By Paul Mirbach
It is astounding how one picture can capture the awareness of hundreds of thousands of people, and galvanize them into action. The waves of refugees, fleeing the carnage and horrors in Syria and Sudan, Libya and Iraq crashed upon the shores of Europe long before the heartbreaking image of Aylin Kurdi, lying lifeless on a beach in Turkey hit the media. Hundreds of refugees, perhaps even thousands, drowned at sea before him. Refugees and asylum seekers have been knocking on Europe’s door since the first months of 2015. Yet, up until the publication of that one picture, which by now is indelibly etched in the consciousness of millions of people, the refugee crisis was met with a certain equanimity, if not apathy by the general public. Before that picture, Italy and Greece were more or less left to their own devices to deal with the problem, despite the fact that Greece, which is undergoing a crippling economic and social earthquake, is probably the one country in Europe which is truly unqualified to deal with a tsunami of such proportions at the moment.
Let’s be honest; there is not going to be a happy ending to this story. There is not even going to be a satisfactory resolution of the crisis. It is going to drag out for months, even years. As long as the wars in the Middle East and Africa continue to rage, the flow of people, desperate to get away from the hell that their lives have become, is going to continue. There seems to be no end in sight. Furthermore, the repercussions that will follow this world changing event will reverberate throughout Europe and probably transform it into something unrecognizable in comparison to what we know today.
First and foremost, we have a moral obligation to try and alleviate these people’s suffering. It is impossible to stand by and see such desperation in the eyes of those literally begging to be allowed into Europe, and remain unmoved. On the television screen we see the masses of hundreds of thousands of people who are willing to risk their lives and board an overcrowded boat to cross the sea to what they believe, is safety. However, we must not forget that every single one of those eyes staring at us is a person, suffering, who has lost his entire world. You can’t in good conscience stand with your arms crossed and say, “not here”. Our consciences will not allow us to stand idly by. For us as Jews, this is even more imperative. One of my first reactions upon witnessing the tragedy of the sunken refugee ship off the coast of Greece, was of the S.S. St Louis, which left the shores of Germany in 1939, packed with Jews fleeing the Nazi regime, and sailed to the United States. There, it was turned back. The United States refused to take them in. Of the 907 passengers, 620 were forced to return to Europe and experience the horrors of the Holocaust and concentration camps. 340 of those on the ship, who saw the shores of salvation from afar but were not allowed to enter, died in the inferno that consumed Europe. Therefore, as a Jew, it is impossible to remain apathetic and allow history to repeat itself.
However, this act of basic human compassion, which is an intrinsic reflex in our Western psyche, will come at a heavy cost. There are at the moment 4.2 million refugees from the conflict in Syria and Iraq alone. The number of refugees from Libya, the Sudan and Eritrea are not known. The influx of refugees, or more accurately, asylum seekers will not stop at hundreds of thousands. Once the flood gates are opened, it will be impossible to close them. The countries’ resources are going to be stretched to bursting. They will need to provide housing and shelter, food and medicine, and eventually, jobs. The expenditure on welfare is going to be astronomical, and in the absence of a worldwide fund, it will have to be financed by the host countries. Perhaps countries like Germany and France can hold out longer than say, Greece or Bulgaria or Spain, but eventually they will also collapse under the burden of what looks like never ending aid. Unemployment is going to go through the roof. We can expect clashes with each country’s existing working class, who will have to compete with these new immigrants for the same jobs, while as always, the new immigrants will be prepared to work for less pay. Racism and xenophobia is going to rise. Expect greater representation of far right wing parties in parliaments, it is going to happen. Crime is probably going to become a major concern for all countries, more than it is today. It is the inevitable result of having such a large number of people living in destitution. The general quality of life in Europe’s cities, even for the most affluent is going to drop. Budgets have a limit and if more is spent on welfare, less is spent elsewhere, which will cause a rise in the cost of living and a decline in the quality of life.
According to International Law, refugees are supposed to be treated in the first country they reach. That puts Greece, Italy and the Balkan states on the frontline. We all know about Greece’s economic crisis, which will hinder its ability to deal with the situation over a long period of time. The Balkan states are only now beginning to recover from a debilitating civil war which left their countries ravaged and destitute. They are hardly in a position to bear the brunt of such a tidal wave of humanity, flooding their shores and cities. Even before this crisis, Eastern Europeans were seeking a way out of their mother countries to get to Western Europe. Now they have an influx of newcomers to deal with themselves.
Will other Western countries come to their aid? Singularly, Germany has lifted the gauntlet and taken a leadership role. Germany is also the first country of choice, because of its affluence. Hopefully other countries will follow suit. However, it is only human nature that when situations get desperate, people and governments become less kind and accommodating. The more exacerbated the refugee and asylum crisis becomes, the less willing these countries will be to accept more refugees. Therefore, I believe we will see in the not too distant future, disagreements and conflicts between countries in the Euro bloc. In order to prevent the flow of immigrants from one country to another – possibly encouraged by the country that was the first port of call, in an attempt to alleviate the pressure – I foresee borders being reestablished. In an extreme scenario, I would not be surprised to see army forces deployed to the borders in order to prevent infiltration. That is likely to be a death knell to the European Union and European cooperation. The European Parliament is going to be very interesting to observe in the near future, with countries confronting one another on the issue of refugees and the aid required to take care of them.
We should distinguish between refugees and asylum seekers. It is a difficult distinction, but one that needs to be made. I would say that a refugee is one who flees the conflict, but has an intention at the end of the conflict to return to one’s home. If one does not have that intention, but also has no other choice, that fits the bill as well. An asylum seeker, as far as I can define it, is one who leaves one’s country due to conflict, but has no intention of returning. He or she is seeking to make a new life in his or her adopted country. In the case of the asylum seekers from Iraq and Syria, I also believe that one’s economic situation also decides whether one can actually become an asylum seeker, or remain a refugee. Interviews of those entering Germany show that the majority of them are professionals with higher education – doctors, engineers, and such. They are seeking a better life, not just surviving. They are also the ones able to pay the extortionate fees demanded for a place on a ship, or a train, in order to make it to Europe. Yes, they are fleeing the conflict, but they are aiming higher than just seeing out the war. The farmers, small shop owners and laborers cannot afford the price and do not have the resources to make a transcontinental move. These are the refugees, sitting in squalid camps in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon. They have no choice. They will have to wait for the conflict to end, and then return to their homes and rebuild everything from scratch. If they survive, that is. They probably pray that their fate will not be like those of the Palestinian refugees, who have been stuck in limbo for 66 years. These are the most desperate, and Europe will not see them on their shores.
As in all cases of upheaval caused by war and desolation, the asylum seekers entering Europe are not homogenous. Therein lies the dangers facing Europe. Photographs of refugees in Macedonia have already captured faces of former ISIS fighters, weary of the war and looking to start anew. Let us not forget that the fact that they are weary of the war does not mean that their beliefs are any less fanatical, or jihadist. Just like in the huge refugee crisis following World War Two, many Nazi officers and war criminals mingled with the truly homeless and under the cloak of refugee status, escaped justice. This is likely to happen here, as well. Allowing free entry of refugees into their countries, is tantamount to importing Islamic terrorism under the guise of exploiting humanity, which these savages never bestowed upon those they captured or invaded. Therefore, a strict screening process, with international intelligence cooperation needs to be put in place before allowing them across the borders. Watching the droves of smiling Syrian refugees being welcomed in Munich, raises fears that no screening was done at all. Furthermore, even if we assume that there are no ISIS or Syrian army veterans mingling with the asylum seekers, we cannot ignore the fact that the majority of these people are Muslim. Not that Europe does not have Muslim communities today, but this huge influx is likely to have a profound effect on the nation’s identity. Ironically what Islam failed to do in the 1400’s when it tried to overtake Europe by force, they may now achieve thanks to European humanity and compassion. Perhaps, when the conflict is resolved, Europe will have a period of relative stability, because the new immigrants will appreciate the kindness shown them. However, history has shown us that the second generation will quickly become frustrated and disenchanted, and seek an outlet, which they find today in Islamic fundamentalism and urban terrorism. Brace yourselves, it will come, unless Europe actively works towards defusing the situation long term.
The change in demographics will also have an effect on the balance of political power in the host countries. Besides the anticipated rise of the extreme right, ambitious politicians will most likely begin to identify the potential of the Muslim lobby and attempt to harness it to their political aspirations. The bigger the lobby the more attractive it is, and this lobby is getting an injection of mammoth proportions. Therefore, we can expect to see an even more extreme shift in voting trends, where the liberal and Left parties are going to become more overtly pro-Palestinian and anti-Zionist. Up until now, there has been a certain distance between a popular and perhaps parliamentary anti-Israel stance, and the country’s foreign policy. With the growth of the Muslim lobby, I predict a shift in foreign policy, away from support for Israel.
If we take a step back and try to analyze the cause of this incalculable influx of humanity, I believe we will conclude that Europe’s and the United States’ decision to not get actively involved in the civil war in Syria, alongside President Obama’s obstinate determination to continue to pull troops out of Iraq, despite the ever burgeoning violence and mayhem that is apparent for all to see, helped precipitate this desperate crisis, which is threatening to change Europe forever. This raises the question whether it is too late. If Europe wants to save its identity, perhaps they need to reconsider their involvement in the fight against ISIS, in order to restore stability to the region and thus stem the flood of refugees on its borders.
Will Europe have the courage to do what it takes to save itself, or will it stubbornly persist with its present policy, thereby exacerbating the impending crisis growing within its own borders?
[The opinions, facts and any media content are presented solely by the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Jewish Media Agency.]
